FCS semifinal preview: Can anyone cease South Dakota State?

It is best to deliver your greatest when the most individuals are watching. With the nation’s soccer consideration largely to itself — and TV viewership numbers wonderful — the FCS quarterfinals had been completely improbable.

Final Friday night time, we acquired the most effective video games of the season, a 35-28 Montana extra time win over Furman that featured two large return touchdowns. On Saturday we acquired Villanova’s valiant (however finally fruitless) exhibiting in opposition to South Dakota State in windy Brookings, plus a North Dakota State revenge pummeling of South Dakota. And within the Saturday night time finale, we acquired one other nice one: After trailing for a lot of the sport, UAlbany went on a 16-0 fourth-quarter run and toppled Idaho, 30-22, on the street.

Now it is time for the semifinals. We have three basic FCS manufacturers and an upstart vying for a January 7 journey to Frisco, Texas, for the nationwide championship. The motion begins again in Brookings on Friday night time.

• No. 5 UAlbany at No. 1 South Dakota State (Friday, 7 p.m., ESPN2)

• North Dakota State at No. 2 Montana (Saturday, 4:30 p.m., ESPN2)

Over the course of 13 or 14 video games, a workforce’s total storyline has time to evolve. That is been the case for a minimum of three of the semifinalists. Aggressive losses to Marshall and Hawaii, paired with a blowout of Villanova, painted an encouraging image of Albany’s playoff prospects early on. Nonetheless, its dominant protection acquired lit up in a 38-31 loss to New Hampshire. Motive for doubt? Not a lot: The Nice Danes have allowed simply 13.4 factors per sport since and have reached the semifinals for the primary time.

Montana created its personal plot twist. Following a stunning 28-14 loss at Northern Arizona, head coach Bobby Hauck made a QB change, switching from Sam Vidlak to Clifton McDowell. The offense stabilized for a couple of weeks, then ignited. Over their final six video games, in opposition to a listing of opponents that features 4 playoff groups, the Grizzlies have received by a median rating of 38-12.

In Fargo, NDSU has skilled a fall stuffed with surprising developments. First, the Bison misplaced three regular-season video games for the primary time since 2010. Then, this previous week, they discovered they had been shedding head coach Matt Entz, to not a head teaching job (as is customary for NDSU) however to USC, the place he would be the linebackers coach. Nonetheless, one thing acquainted has emerged from this relative chaos: successful. The Bison have received 5 straight, 4 in opposition to ranked or playoff opponents and 4 by a minimum of 21 factors. Regardless of beginning the playoffs unseeded, they’re proper again into the semifinals as all the time.

There’s been one fixed this fall: South Dakota State’s dominance. The Jackrabbits have received 27 straight video games, and solely 5 have been by single digits. Villanova made them sweat final week, slicing their result in simply 5 factors early within the fourth quarter. However the Jacks instantly acquired a 66-yard landing run from Isaiah Davis, picked off a move, compelled a three-and-out and cruised.

From the beginning, the general narrative for this version of the playoffs was whether or not or not somebody may topple SDSU. Three weeks in, that seems no extra seemingly than it did in the beginning. This is extra on every of the 2 semifinals.

No. 5 Albany (11-3) at No. 1 South Dakota State (13-0)

South Dakota State

SP+ rank: first

Playoff outcomes up to now: defeated Mercer 41-0; defeated Villanova 23-12

Title odds: 64.3% (final week: 58.4%)

UAlbany

SP+ rank: fifth

Playoff outcomes up to now: defeated Richmond 41-13; defeated Idaho 30-22

Title odds: 4.0% (final week: 3.8%)

Protection has certainly pushed Albany’s first-ever semifinal run. Just one FCS opponent has scored greater than 22 factors on the Nice Danes. The extra it’s a must to move on them, the more serious you are going to fare. They’ve recorded 99 tackles for loss (together with 50 sacks) and defended 67 passes (together with 17 interceptions) in 2023; whereas South Dakota State has confronted loads of high quality opposition this fall, the defensive finish duo of Anton Juncaj and AJ Simon (mixed: 43 TFLs, 27.5 sacks, 31 hurries and 7 compelled fumbles) is one thing altogether completely different. SDSU has an annoying “No matter you do greatest, the Jacks do it higher” factor going, however nobody in FCS rushes the passer higher than UAlbany.

That is an incredible factor to say contemplating they may have additionally had former Nice Dane and present Florida State star Jared Verse on the two-deep. Albany’s move protection may make a serious distinction on this semifinal matchup … if SDSU has to move.

The Jacks have an excellent passing sport pushed by Mark Gronowski (68% completion charge, 14.5 yards per completion, 25-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio) and veteran wideouts Jadon and Jaxon Janke (mixed: 91 catches, 1,470 yards, 13 TDs). However SDSU may even punch you within the mouth with Isaiah Davis (1,384 yards, 6.8 per carry), Amar Johnson (717 yards, 6.4 per carry) and the most effective offensive line within the subdivision till you show you’ll be able to cease them. And even in case you do sluggish them down for a bit, it’s a must to preserve doing it: In ultra-windy situations final week in opposition to Villanova, SDSU gained solely 64 yards within the first half. They gained 279 within the second. You do not win 27 video games in a row with out studying the worth of remaining affected person.

One of many different irritating points of enjoying SDSU is, regardless of how good your protection is, theirs is best. They’re first in defensive SP+ with a ranking greater than a landing higher than the second-best D. And in case you choose extra customary measures, they’re first in scoring protection and complete protection, too.

Quarterback Reese Poffenbarger and the UAlbany offense have improved over the course of 2023, averaging 34.6 factors and 418 yards over the past eight video games. The run sport has been up and down this season; Griffin Woodell and Faysal Aden are grinders, averaging 20.3 carries per sport between them, however they’ve averaged simply 4.7 yards per carry. It is asking lots for both of them to have an enormous sport in opposition to this protection. However the Poffenbarger-to-Brevin Easton connection has been very important. I wrote final week that you simply most likely aren’t going to beat SDSU and not using a sure variety of huge performs and turnovers. The Albany move rush may theoretically present the latter, and Eason, who’s averaged 105.4 yards per sport and 24.1 yards per catch over the past eight video games (together with 9 catches for 200 yards and three scores in opposition to Idaho final week), may present the previous.

ESPN BET projection: SDSU 33.8, UAlbany 12.8 (SDSU -21 with a 46.5 over/underneath)
SP+ projection: SDSU 34.6, UAlbany 12.5

That is the primary ever assembly between the Jacks and Nice Danes. It is most likely going to finish up enjoying out like most of SDSU’s final 27 video games have, with the Jackrabbit protection pushing its opponent not on time and forcing punts whereas the offense finally finds a rhythm and pulls away. However whereas there aren’t many paths to an Albany victory, you’ll be able to definitely see how one may take form from Easton creating straightforward factors with a few huge catches and a very good protection creating adverse performs (and presumably turnovers). And hey, in case you play in upstate New York, you might be most likely prepared for below-freezing situations, too. SDSU is a powerful favourite, however Albany may give itself an opportunity.

North Dakota State (11-3) at No. 2 Montana (12-1)

North Dakota State

SP+ rank: second

Playoff outcomes up to now: defeated Drake 66-3; defeated No. 8 Montana State 35-34 (OT); defeated South Dakota 45-17

Title odds: 24.4% (final week: 21.0%)

Montana

SP+ rank: third

Playoff outcomes up to now: defeated Delaware 49-19; defeated Furman 35-28 (OT)

Title odds: 7.3% (final week: 8.2%)

There are few moments in soccer higher than the Rocket Ismail-style second, the place a kick or punt is flying by way of the air towards an amazing return man in an enormous second, and he does the factor everybody within the stadium is hoping he’ll do: home it.

CAN YOU BELIEVE IT! ��@bergen_junior with ANOTHER HOUSE CALL!#GoGriz pic.twitter.com/JfoRrewf4p

– Montana Griz Soccer (@MontanaGrizFB) December 9, 2023

Junior Bergen saved Montana’s bacon final Friday night time in opposition to Furman. The junior receiver and return man started the sport with a 99-yard kick return landing, then gave the Grizzlies a 28-21 lead within the fourth quarter along with his sixth profession punt return landing. (He additionally had 4 catches for 44 yards.) Furman tied the sport with a fourth-down landing with 13 seconds left in regulation — the Paladins tried a doomed two-point conversion however had been saved by a false begin penalty and settled for the PAT — however the Griz received with a landing move and fourth-down cease in OT. Montana scored solely twice in regulation thanks to 2 missed area objectives, an interception close to midfield and a dire run of 4 straight three-and-outs within the second half. However Bergen purchased them simply sufficient margin for error.

It could be fairly unimaginable if Bergen pulled off related heroics on Saturday afternoon. A few of NDSU’s most susceptible moments in 2023 got here through particular groups breakdowns, too. However of their first semifinal since 2011, the Griz ought to most likely attempt to depend on successful with offense and protection.

That is a lot simpler mentioned than performed. NDSU confirmed nearly unprecedented vulnerability this season, shedding three of six midseason video games and struggling blowouts by the hands of each North Dakota and South Dakota State. UND used a kick return landing and a blocked punt (like I mentioned…) to construct an early lead and went an unimaginable 9-for-12 on third downs to maintain drives transferring. They led by as many as 32 earlier than successful, 49-24. SDSU was a extra mortal 6-for-13 on third downs however turned three Bison turnovers into factors and used a Tucker Massive punt return to attain a short-field landing as a part of a 23-0 run. The Jacks finally cruised, 33-16.

The SDSU loss evidently flipped a change. NDSU has appeared awfully NDSU-like since, averaging 48.5 factors per sport over the past 4. Not together with sacks, the run sport has averaged 6.2 yards per carry in that span, and whereas quarterback Cam Miller remains to be a bit sack-prone, NDSU has nonetheless averaged 10.1 yards per dropback (inc. sacks) on this span; extra importantly, Miller hasn’t thrown an interception for the reason that SDSU sport.

Montana’s protection is predicated on stress. Blitz-happy linebackers Riley Wilson and Braxton Hill have 11 sacks amongst 19 TFLs, and cornerback Trevin Gradney has 5 interceptions with six breakups. (Hill has two picks himself.) The Griz drive you to reply to nonstop assaults, and that seems like enjoying with hearth in opposition to NDSU — both Montana makes a great deal of TFLs and sacks Miller in key conditions, or NDSU rushes for 300-plus yards.

Montana can win a defense-heavy rock combat, however can the Griz sustain in a observe meet? That may depend upon quarterback Clifton McDowell. His legs supplied a great addition when he entered the beginning lineup — he is rushed for a minimum of 65 yards seven occasions and went for 118 final week — and NDSU has been susceptible to a very good run sport at occasions, permitting greater than 200 speeding yards thrice. However in some unspecified time in the future McDowell should move, and that is sometimes when NDSU strikes. The Bison have picked off a minimum of three passes 4 occasions this season and have 10 INTs within the final 4 video games. NDSU’s Cole Wisniewski is principally the most effective safeties and linebackers within the nation, main the Bison in tackles whereas selecting off eight passes. Wherever the ball goes, he materializes there. McDowell cannot make errors.

ESPN BET projection: NDSU 25.5, Montana 24.0
SP+ projection: NDSU 28.4, Montana 23.3

Entz’s introduced departure may present both an emotional enhance or an anchor for NDSU, however on paper the Bison have slight benefits right here. Was all that midseason vulnerability only a smokescreen to distract us from one other inevitable NDSU-SDSU title showdown? Or does Montana have a bit extra dwelling magic to deploy?