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Essentially the most impactful storyline at UFC 296 will shine a highlight on what’s proper in entrance of our eyes, glowing with the promise of ascendance. Behold these golden championship belts — two of them! — that might be up for grabs on Saturday at T-Cell Enviornment, as luminous because the neon lights exterior on the Las Vegas Strip.
Leon Edwards will defend his welterweight championship in opposition to two-time title challenger Colby Covington in the principle occasion, proper after Alexandre Pantoja places his flyweight belt on the road in opposition to a well-known foe, Brandon Royval, whom he submitted barely two years in the past (ESPN+ PPV, 10 p.m. ET, prelims on ESPN2/ESPN+ at 8 p.m.).
By no means say by no means in MMA, however this shapes up as a last-chance expedition to achieve the game’s peak for each challengers. For the champs, Edwards will make his second protection and Pantoja his first; that is simply the lifestyle on the high of the mountain. Line them up, one hungry climber after the subsequent, and if the champion has endurance, he’ll ship ’em all tumbling down.
There are storylines up and down this battle card — from redemption to resilience to refocusing. Here is what’s going to catch our eye on Saturday:
The enemy of my enemy is my opponent?
Welterweight championship: Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington
This might be Covington’s first journey contained in the Octagon in 21 months. And get a load of this: Will probably be simply his fifth battle since 2019 — however his third strive for the title in that point. “Chaos” Covington is 2-2 in his previous 4 bouts, however right here we go once more. The UFC seems to actually need this man to get his arms on a belt. Might that be as a result of his most notable cheerleader is a sure former U.S. president who’s in style with a major phase of the MMA fan base? That is a storyline to look at this weekend, particularly with stated ex-president anticipated to be at cageside.
However I am electing to concentrate on the Covington persona from a special angle: What occurs to a heel flip when it has to reverse itself?
Three of Covington’s previous 4 fights have been in opposition to bitter enemies — the 2 title-fight losses to Kamaru Usman and, most not too long ago, a victory over former BFF Jorge Masvidal. The animosity surrounding these grudge matches has been absent from the leadup to Edwards vs. Covington battle week. Furthermore, these two have inadvertently discovered themselves on the identical aspect of the battle strains.
Edwards feuded with Masvidal earlier than Covington ever did, most famously as the recipient of a “three-piece with a soda” sucker punch throughout a backstage confrontation in 2019. Covington may even relate to Edwards’ expertise after he was himself the goal of a Masvidal sneak assault final yr exterior a Miami Seashore restaurant.
After which Edwards twice did what Covington couldn’t in his two tries — defeat Usman. Contemplating all the warmth generated throughout Covington’s rivalry with Usman, he absolutely needed to benefit from seeing the previous champ get knocked down a few pegs. Which put him within the peculiar place of being pleased to see Edwards win.
Can Covington now drum up the animus that appears to gasoline him? Or will he put aside the thoughts video games and depend on his domineering physicality to achieve his elusive aim?
How’d you get again right here already?
Males’s flyweight championship: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Brandon Royval
These two fought just a bit over two years in the past, and Pantoja choked out Royval early in Spherical 2. Why are they at it once more?
One key matchmaking issue that is completely different: Pantoja is the champion now after dethroning Brandon Moreno in July, so his job is to tackle the highest 125-pound contender. That is Royval, who bounced again from the 2021 defeat to attain three straight wins, the final two of them first-round finishes of fighters within the ESPN flyweight high 10.
The primary assembly with Pantoja did not finish effectively for Royval, however it was fast-paced and fiery for so long as it lasted — cannot complain about getting extra of that.
What does this man have in opposition to cageside judges?
Welterweight: Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Stephen Thompson
Rakhmonov has fought 17 instances and has received each a kind of bouts — all 17 by both knockout (eight) or submission (9). Even an MMA choose can see why they’re going to possible be pointless for this battle.
“Wonderboy” ought to present a stiff take a look at, although, even at age 40 and amid a barren stretch of simply 4 wins in his previous 10 fights. Thompson might not be the identical puzzling karate whiz who challenged for the UFC title two instances, however among the many 24 bouts on his résumé, he has been completed simply as soon as.
Is there no finish to this darkish highway?
Light-weight: Tony Ferguson vs. Paddy Pimblett
When Ferguson knocked out Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone in June 2019, it was his twelfth straight victory and arrange a title shot in opposition to Khabib Nurmagomedov. However “El Cucuy” had heard that tune earlier than — matchups with Khabib had fallen aside 4 instances beforehand — and positive sufficient, pandemic-related journey restrictions scuttled yet one more showdown of two of the most popular fighters on the roster.
Since then, Ferguson hasn’t even been lukewarm. He has misplaced all six fights, with 4 losses coming by end. Ferguson, 39, has appeared like a ghost of the mystifying power he as soon as was. Is the UFC utilizing him as fodder to construct up the lightning rod from Liverpool, “Paddy The Baddy”? Or will Ferguson’s unconventional current coaching with former Navy SEAL David Goggins change his trajectory?
When the cage door closes, it is simply one-on-one
Welterweight: Ian Machado Garry vs. Vicente Luque
The very first thing Garry will discover is a well-known face throughout the Octagon. He and Luque skilled collectively till not too long ago at Kill Cliff FC in South Florida. One other factor Garry will discover as soon as the cage door locks shut: Will probably be simply Luque and him in there. OK, there will be a referee, too, however he is skilled to not take sides. And proper now, evidently the remainder of the MMA world is taking sides in opposition to Garry.
Let’s not dwell on the melodrama. Suffice to say it includes Garry’s private life, a few gyms the place he not trains and a number of fighters with low opinions of him. Nonetheless, there’s one facet of Garry’s life that nobody disparages: his preventing capacity. Will he proceed his unbeaten run by tuning out the detrimental consideration? Or will the distractions journey him up?
Types remake fights
Males’s featherweight: Josh Emmett vs. Bryce Mitchell
Kudos to Emmett for taking this short-notice bout. He had spent a full coaching camp getting ready for Giga Chikadze, a inventive, difficult striker. After Chikadze injured his groin and needed to withdraw, Emmett accepted a reserving that could not be extra completely different. Mitchell is a virtuoso grappler who’ll current a very completely different problem.
I suppose you do not flip down fights once you’ve dropped two in a row to fall within the 145-pound hierarchy, as Emmett has. His energy punching might get him again on observe, if solely Emmett can maintain his again off a canvas that Mitchell would contend is as flat because the earth.
Will the engine rev up this time or stall once more?
Girls’s bantamweight: Irene Aldana vs. Karol Rosa
The story of the UFC 289 major occasion again in June was that Amanda Nunes, the best within the historical past of girls’s MMA, was retiring as a two-division champ. That the GOAT was the main target of consideration was factor for Aldana, the lady Nunes beat in her farewell battle.
If not for the retirement, followers and pundits may need dwelled extra upon the disappearing act of Aldana. She barely put up a battle in dropping 50-44 on two scorecards and 50-43 on the third. Certain, Nunes is an all-time nice, however Aldana simply froze in there, touchdown single digits in strikes in three of the 5 rounds. Can she flip it again on in opposition to Rosa?
Are these the actual championship rounds?
Males’s bantamweight: Cody Garbrandt vs. Brian Kelleher
As battle followers know, the championship rounds are Rounds 4 and 5 of a title bout, the additional 10 minutes that take a look at the mettle of an athlete vying to be one of the best within the sport. However does something take a look at one’s devotion to MMA greater than what Garbrandt goes by way of at this level in his profession?
He was 11-0 and UFC males’s bantamweight champ when he misplaced a grudge match to former teammate TJ Dillashaw again in 2017. Garbrandt additionally misplaced a rematch 9 months later — and has continued to lose practically each battle since. He’s 2-5 since capturing the belt in 2016, with all however one of many losses coming by brutal knockout. But he retains going. The place does Garbrandt go from there if he falls to the equally unranked Kelleher?
Now that you just’re all grown up …
Girls’s flyweight: Casey O’Neill vs. Ariane Lipski
As not too long ago as two years in the past, O’Neill was a prospect on the rise, undefeated and slotted within the high three in ESPN’s 2021 rating of one of the best 25 fighters beneath age 25. Then issues unraveled. She was closely favored in opposition to Roxanne Modafferi in February 2022 however needed to eke out a split-decision win. Then O’Neill tore an ACL and was out for over a yr. Her return battle this previous March was in London, the Scottish native’s first look in the UK. O’Neill misplaced that bout to Jennifer Maia. In October, she was scheduled to battle within the different locale the place her household had set down roots, Australia, however one other harm scuttled these plans.
Lastly, on Saturday, O’Neill has her alternative for a bounce-back. Can her quantity punching — O’Neill’s 8.77 strikes landed per minute are essentially the most of any fighter in UFC historical past — reinvigorate a promising profession?
